Monthly Economic and Financial Developments (MEFD) November 2022
Published: Wednesday December 28th, 2022
Domestic Economic Developments
Overview
During the month of November, indications are that the domestic economy maintained its recovery momentum from the adverse impact of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Tourism output further strengthened, buoyed by the rebound in the high value-added air segment and the recovery in sea traffic, in response to further relaxation of pandemic restrictions and the heightened demand for travel in the key source market. In monetary developments, bank liquidity contracted during the month of November, as the growth in domestic credit, contrasted with the reduction in the deposit base. Against this backdrop, external reserves decreased, attributed to seasonal net foreign currency outflows through the public and private sectors.
Real Sector
Tourism
Monthly data suggested that the tourism sector continued to record robust growth during the review period, amid relaxed pandemic restrictions and heightened demand for travel in the key source market.
Official data provided by the Ministry of Tourism (MOT) indicated that total passenger arrivals by first port of entry grew to 570,154 in October, from 260,942 visitors in the same month of 2021. Specifically, the dominant sea segment rose to 484,480, vis-á-vis 204,067 visitors in the prior year. Further, air traffic expanded to 85,674 from 56,875 a year earlier—surpassing pre-pandemic levels; representing 114.1% of air arrivals registered in 2019.
A breakdown by major ports of entry revealed that, total arrivals to New Providence increased to 235,282 in October, from 140,581 in the comparative period of 2021. Leading this outcome, the air and sea segments both advanced to 69,408 and 165,875 visitors, respectively. Likewise, traffic to the Family Islands amounted to 308,209 visitors, compared to 106,365 a year earlier, as air and sea visitors measured 13,717 and 294,492, respectively. Further, Grand Bahama attracted 26,663 visitors, exceeding the 13,996 recorded in the previous year, attributed to gains in the air and sea components, of 2,549 and 24,114, respectively.
On an annual basis, total arrivals rebounded to 5.3 million from 1.2 million in the corresponding 2021 period, when a 30.9% contraction was registered. Supporting this outturn, air arrivals accelerated to 1.2 million passengers, exceeding the 79.8% growth a year earlier, reflecting gains in all major source markets. Similarly, sea arrivals rose to 4.2 million visitors, a turnaround from a 61.4% reduction in 2021.
The most recent data provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company Limited (NAD) showed that for the month of November, total departures—net of domestic passengers—moved higher to 106,462 from 79,055 in the comparative period of 2021. Specifically, U.S. departures expanded to 90,023 from 68,425 in the previous year. Further, non-U.S. departures rose to 16,439 from 10,630 in the same month of 2021. On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic increased to 1.2 million from 0.7 million passengers in the comparative period a year earlier, following a 64.9% expansion in the preceding year. In particular, U.S. departures rebounded to 1.0 million visitors, extending the 83.8% growth in the prior year. Likewise, non-U.S. departures grew to 0.1 million, a reversal from the 30.0% decline in the corresponding period last year.
As it relates to the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA mirrored these positive trends. Specifically, during the month of November, total room nights sold rose to 119,105 from 95,440 in the comparative 2021 period. Contributing to this outcome, the occupancy rates for both entire place and hotel comparable listings increased to 50.3% and 48.3%, respectively, compared to 50.7% and 47.9% a year earlier. Further, price indicators showed that year-over-year, the average daily room rate (ADR) for entire place grew by 12.4% to $551.72 and hotel comparable listings, by 5.0% to $190.92.
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